Colorado State University’s (CSU) predictions for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast “slightly below average” activity due to El Niño conditions. CSU researchers predict six hurricanes (two being Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes) and 13 named storms for this year’s hurricane season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th.
According to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU, “current neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions look fairly likely to transition to El Niño this summer/fall. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong an El Niño would be, if it does develop.”
Klotzbach explains that Atlantic hurricane activity usually decreases during El Niño conditions due to escalations in vertical wind shear. However, the forecast authors have indicated that “larger-than-normal uncertainty” exists with this outlook, and that the potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season if a robust El Niño does not develop.
Nonetheless, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has recently reported a greater than 90% chance that El Niño conditions form within the next two months and remain until the winter season. The Administration will be releasing their 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook later next week with more information.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) urges citizens to adequately prepare now for potential storms in advance, and those in areas prone to coastal and inland flooding should utilize resources such as Ready.gov and Listo.gov.
Agents and brokers should also be encouraging their clients to purchase flood insurance to protect their most valuable assets and to help them recover more quickly should they experience a flood. Private flood solutions offer higher limits, broader coverages and more stable and competitive rates than what is available from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). With over 25 years of industry-leading expertise, Tokio Marine Highland provides a wide range of innovative private flood solutions to ensure the right coverage for your insureds this hurricane season.